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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-27T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27889/-1
CME Note: Wide S/SW filament eruption seen in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is filament eruption spanning from S30W10 to S10W40. Liftoff seen starting at 2023-11-27T05:20Z in SDO AIA 304. Filamentary material seen leaving the surface, and post-eruptive brightening also seen in SDO AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 imagery. Moving field lines off the SW limb seen in SDO AIA 171 at 05:45Z. Dimming and ejecta seen in SDO AIA 193 starting at 05:30Z. There is no clear evidence of a CME arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1. There is however a slight chance that this CME combined with two later, more prominent, CMEs: 2023-11-27T20:12:00-CME-001 and 2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001but for the later combined arrival at 2023-11-30T23:29Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-29T21:47Z (-11.0h, +14.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Notification:
## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (OSIRIS-APEX, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Psyche, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2023-11-28T14:51:58Z
## Message ID: 20231128-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20231127-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge or flank of the CME will reach:
- STEREO A between about 2023-11-29T08:14Z and 2023-11-30T06:24Z (average arrival 2023-11-29T18:30Z) for 100% of simulations.

Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-11-29T10:25Z and 2023-11-30T12:18Z (average arrival 2023-11-29T21:47Z) for 100% of simulations.  The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 83% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-27_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA054/20231127_100600_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA054_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-27_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA054/20231127_100600_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA054_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-27_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA054/20231127_100600_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA054_Earth_stack.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-27_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA054/20231127_100600_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA054_arrival_STA.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-27_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA054/20231127_100600_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA054_STA_stack.gif

## Notes:
This CME event (2023-11-27T06:48:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at 
OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-29T07:54Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-30T11:25Z, and Psyche at 2023-11-30T19:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20231127-AL-001).

Lead Time: 38.98 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-11-28T06:48Z

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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